My pet project to forecast the size of the national alpaca herd is rolling along but much more slowly than I had anticipated. However , it is vitally important that I collect as much data as possible from reliable sources so that the base assumptions become as accurate as possible when I run the model.

My main sources are large and highly experienced breeders such as Mike Safley and industry data that has accumulated with organisations such as ARI.
here is a sample of the type of data I am collecting.



This table shows mortality and infertility in alpaca females

age % deaths due to all causes. % becoming infertile or unable to nurse successfully.



0 – 6 months inc. birth 5 -
6 months - 1 year 3 -
1yr – 2 yrs 1 -
2yrs – 3 yrs 1 4
3yrs – 4yrs 1 1
4yrs – 5yrs 1 1
5yrs – 6yrs 1 1
6yrs – 7yrs 1 1
7yrs – 8yrs 1 1
8yrs – 9yrs 1 1
9yrs – 10yrs 1 2
10yrs – 11yrs 1 4
11yrs – 12yrs 1 6
12yrs – 13yrs 1 8
13yrs – 14yrs 10 10
14yrs – 15yrs 20 20
15yrs – 16yrs 20 40
16yrs – 17yrs 20
17yrs – 18 yrs 10
18yrs – 19yrs
19yrs - 20yrs
100 100


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